Late to the game, Apple may fail to fold people away from Samsung

When will Apple release a foldable phone? It's the million dollar question, one that's become even more intriguing with the launch of the Google Pixel Fold. Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip series have had relatively smooth sailing in the US. There were no homegrown competitors and the Chinese foldables aren't allowed in the US.

Ever since Samsung launched its first foldable phone back in 2019, the company has had ample time to establish itself as the dominant player in this segment. The Google Pixel Fold is the first real competitor for the Galaxy Z Fold series in the United States. This new product launch has now transformed the US into the new battleground for foldable smartphone supremacy.

For many Apple fans, it's hard to imagine why the company is fine with letting others establish dominance in this segment. While there have been a few rumors that Apple is considering foldable phones, nothing concrete has materialized as yet. It's safe to say one won't be released in 2023 and there's no indication to suggest we may see one in 2024 either.

The longstanding argument has been that Apple typically waits for a market to mature before it dives in. We've seen this play out once again only a few years ago with 5G connectivity. Apple took over a year to bring 5G support to iPhones even though Android OEMs had already been selling them. By the time the first 5G iPhone was launched, a lot more carriers across the globe had enabled their 5G services compared to when Samsung became the first company to release a 5G phone.

It won't necessarily play out like that when it comes to foldable phones. This form factor is a major technical revolution, a reimagination of what a smartphone can be, and it's safe to say that it's the future. Apple's entry into the foldable market, delayed as it will be, will see the company having to catch up with Samsung's advancements.

The longer Apple waits, the more time it gives Samsung to win hearts and minds with its foldable phones, something that it's doing very well. Apple can rely on customers securely locked inside its walled garden to pick up the foldable iPhone but it may struggle to entice existing Galaxy Z Fold or Z Flip owners to ditch their Samsung device.

Apple is very proud of its ecosystem integration. All of its hardware and software products work together very well to ensure that users don't go outside its walled garden. It also makes the company a lot of money. Much of it will need to be optimized and made compatible with the foldable form factor. So it's entirely possible that the user experience may not be as good, at least initially. Samsung has had a long time to optimize its software and services for foldables and it also collaborates closely with Google on the same.

While there's no doubt that Apple will eventually get it right, it's reasonable to expect some teething problems initially. There's historical precedent for this, after all. The Apple Maps launch was botched, to put it mildly, and it took the company a considerable amount of time to sort out the issues. It ended up improving vastly over the coming years, but surely Apple would like to forget the first few months of its Google Maps competitor.

Then there's also the perception of Samsung being the market leader in foldable phones, one that's growing with each passing day. Samsung's foldable phone sales have exploded over the past year and are only expected to from strength to strength. The company has put in the work over these past few years to build confidence among customers who may not have been willing to take a chance on this form factor initially.

Despite the utter loyalty that iPhone owners exhibit and the iron grip that Apple has on people in its ecosystem, the company's first foldable launch will not be without its challenges. It's going to be an uphill battle for the company to try and fold people away from Samsung.

So either it relies solely on the iPhone faithful and not bother about competing directly with Apple, or it comes out swinging to prove that it will do things on its own time and still knock it out of the park. As keen observers of the market, it's surely going to be an interesting spectacle for us.